MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION
HAZARD
2012
A dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause
loss of live, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and
services, social and economic disruption or environmental damage. Different types of
hazards include shocks such as floods (rapid onset) and stresses such as changing
rainfall patterns and droughts (slow onset). We need to distinguish between the
hazard (e.g. a flood) and the effects of the hazard (e.g. drowning of people or
destruction of homestead). Some effects are the result of cumulative hazards
(events) such as declining soil fertility plus reduced rainfall and poor access to
markets leading to reduced income and food insecurity.
RESILIENCE
The ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb,
accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient
manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic
structures and functions. The term “resilience” as used in DRR has strong linkages to
“adaptive capacity”.
RISK
The combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences, often
expressed as R = HxV/C.
SEASONAL FORECASTING
Seasonal forecasting predicts the climate in between weather and climate model time
scales and is based on slowly changing phenomena that have a significant impact on
the weather, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Monitoring these
phenomena allows seasonal trends to be predicted up to around two years in
advance but with greater confidence for around three months. Typical seasonal
forecasts predict daily rainfall with a level of confidence; generally speaking
confidence reduces the further the location is away from the equator and the
influence of ENSO (Ensor, 2011).
A Training Manual on Use of Climate Information and Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment for
Agricultural Extension Staff in Zimbabwe
Page 103